Researchers have outlined five crucial actions to help the world prepare for a potentially strongest-on-record El Nino, aiming to reduce its severe health consequences like infectious diseases, malnutrition, and heat-related conditions. These recommendations, published in The Lancet, emphasise a comprehensive risk overview and early preparatory measures.
The southwest monsoon has withdrawn from India, while the northeast monsoon has commenced in southern regions, bringing a wet spell. This year's southwest monsoon saw a rainfall deficit, largely attributed to the strengthening El Nino conditions, which are expected to persist until February 2027 and could become the strongest since 1950.
A report by the University of Chicago's Energy Policy Institute projects approximately 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in India over the next six months due to the 'super El Nino' phenomenon. Globally, nearly 451,000 additional deaths are anticipated. Experts in India emphasize the need for swift action, including implementing Heat Action Plans and focusing on vulnerable populations, while also urging caution regarding model-based projections.
India's hydropower generation has been significantly constrained in July due to the El Nio effect, which has weakened the southwest monsoon and reduced reservoir levels. This decline, following a 21 per cent year-on-year drop in June 2026, is forcing greater reliance on coal generation and straining grid flexibility amidst rising power demand.
Climate experts explain how El Nino and climate change are intricately linked, with El Nino delaying monsoon onset and climate change intensifying rainfall. This new reality is altering the Indian monsoon's behaviour, leading to short-duration, high-intensity rain spells, especially in western and northwestern regions.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted below normal monsoon rains for India this year, citing the potential emergence of El Nino conditions. This could significantly impact the country's agriculture-dependent economy.
The Centre has reviewed the monsoon situation, noting a reduced rainfall deficit and ongoing preparedness for the kharif season amidst El Nino concerns. A high-level meeting chaired by the Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister discussed measures across various sectors, emphasising continuous monitoring and coordinated action to mitigate potential impacts on agriculture, water resources, and essential commodities.
Moody's Ratings has sharply increased India's GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2026-27 to 7 per cent, making it the fastest among G20 economies, driven by economic resilience despite the Middle East conflict. However, the agency flagged significant inflation risks stemming from elevated oil prices and potential El Nino disruptions.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged states to balance the opportunities presented by artificial intelligence with the need to safeguard against social challenges like cyber fraud and drug abuse. He also warned of the risks posed by El Nino conditions, calling for stronger water conservation measures and emphasising the collective resolve towards a 'Viksit Bharat'.
El Nino is often associated with below average warmer, dry weather across Asia Pacific region.
IMD will present its month-wise and region-wise forecast in June.
The El Nino impact on the Indian monsoon typically manifests by way of extended break in rainfall.
'Geopolitical risks and their impact on oil prices, if any, are another concern for global markets, particularly for India.'
Steps to improve governance, instill confidence in the government machinery and streamlining function across the different ministries are also important to feed the positive mood, the DBS report added.
"Rather than worrying, preparation is required. Contingency plans will be made for affected districts and crop changes will be considered wherever necessary"
If El Nino condition affects the monsoons, as is being forecast by foreign agencies, it can slow down the economy to 5.2 per cent next fiscal from a projected 6 per cent.
A rise in farm sector is estimated to raise demand for industrial goods and services, it added.
About 60 per cent of net sown area of the country is rain-fed. With every one per cent deficit in rains, the country's gross domestic produce falls by 0.35 per cent.
El Nino, which refers to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, will likely to keep CPI inflation up at 8-10 per cent in the second half of 2014 and will pose a 50-70 basis point risk to this fiscal's growth expectation, the report by financial services major Bank of America Merrill Lynch said.
The El Nino weather phenomenon will bring drier winter weather to Indonesia, India, Mexico, Central America and northern Brazil, US government weather forecasters said.
Senior officials of the India Meteorological Department said they were now more confident that El Nino would indeed appear during the second half of the southwest season, compared to April when the last official forecast was made.
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An El Nino is a temporary change in the climate of the Pacific Ocean, in the region around the equator.
Less-than-expected rainfall and a poor spatial distribution, experts say, can rekindle fears of a rise in food and fuel inflation that can have an impact on the RBI's monetary policy. The fear of less than optimal rainfall due to El Nino this year, analysts believe, is the biggest short-term risk for the markets, which they said has not been fully priced in yet by them. Monsoon set over Kerala on June 08, a week later than its scheduled date.
El Nino, an anomalous rise in sea surface temperature off the Peru coast, has been observed to often cause the Indian monsoon to flounder, resulting in poor rainfall. Nearly 60 per cent of agricultural land is wholly rain-dependent.
Officials in the weather department said the monsoon is expected to be below normal because of the El-Nino effect.
The Indian Met Department has predicted a below normal monsoon.
The southwest monsoon has officially set over Kerala, albeit delayed from its typical June 1 start. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts below-normal rainfall for the season, expecting around 90% of the long-period average, primarily due to the emerging El Nino conditions.
"This year, the Southwest Monsoon is likely to set over Kerala on May 31 with a model error of four days," the India meteorological department said on Wednesday.
Wholesale price-based inflation eased to a nine-month low of 4.68 per cent in February, while retail inflation slowed to a 25-month low of 8.1 per cent.
The India Meteorological Department in its first forecast for 2014 had said southwest monsoon will be below normal at 95 per cent of the long-period average.
'We should expect extreme heat, extreme rains, floods, landslides and maybe cyclones. Not just this year, in the coming year as well.'
The government must expand the farm insurance cover and advice banks and financial institutions to settle crop insurance claims in the drought-hit areas without delay.
Rainfall in August is predicted to be below normal (less than 94 per cent of LPA), but the situation is expected to improve comparatively in September, the IMD said.
'If because of El Nino, the monsoon is affected adversely in the current year, naturally it will affect income projections and consequently Budget numbers.'
Monsoon revival over weekend likely, but second-half rainfall may be muted. If the rains become scarce after mid-August, the standing kharif crops might be impacted
India's wholesale price inflation (WPI) increased to 9.87 per cent in June, up from 9.68 per cent in May, primarily due to significant price increases in non-food and food products, with food inflation alone rising to 5.49 per cent.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the June-September southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over India is expected to be 90 per cent of the long-period average. While the Northeast is likely to witness normal rainfall, the remaining parts of the country may see below normal rainfall.
The monthly average rainfall over India is expected to be below normal during July, the India Meteorological Department said on Tuesday in its monthly forecast.
'A weak monsoon always spells disaster. But it's too early to have a pessimistic view.'
The Reserve Bank of India has marginally increased its GDP forecast for the current fiscal to 6.7 per cent while slightly lowering the inflation projection to 5 per cent. The central bank noted that while domestic economic activity shows resilience, global turbulence, particularly re-escalating conflicts and volatile oil prices, continues to pose risks to the inflation outlook.
